Air travel has always had its share of bumps, but recent studies suggest turbulence might become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Research published last year highlighted significant increases in clear-air turbulence (CAT) from 1979 to 2020, with some areas experiencing a 55% rise in severe turbulence. Another study in 2017 used climate modelling to predict that by 2050, CAT could be four times as common as it was in the past.
Pilots use weather radar and their experience to navigate through turbulence. Radar imagery shows where the most intense turbulence is likely, enabling pilots to work with air traffic control to avoid these areas. When unexpected turbulence occurs, pilots turn on the “fasten seatbelt” sign and reduce engine thrust to slow down, seeking smoother air at different altitudes.
The flight route between Australia and India, covering the Indian Ocean and diverse weather systems, experiences air turbulence, though it remains manageable by modern standards.
Common turbulence factors
The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where northeast and southeast trade winds converge, often leads to thunderstorms and unpredictable weather. Flights between Australia and India may pass near this zone, particularly at certain times of the year, leading to moderate turbulence.
High-altitude jet streams, which are fast-flowing air currents, can cause turbulence when aircraft enter or leave these streams. The subtropical jet stream, in particular, can affect this route.
The Indian subcontinent’s monsoon seasons bring significant weather changes, contributing to turbulence. The Southwest Monsoon (June to September) and the Northeast Monsoon (October to December) bring heavy rains and thunderstorms that can affect flights.
Tropical cyclones, while less common, can develop in the Indian Ocean from November to April. These powerful storms lead to severe turbulence and often require flight path adjustments.
Historical problems on the route
The route between Australia and India does encounter turbulence, though there have been no major incidents solely attributed to it. However, there have been a few notable instances where flights experienced significant turbulence:
In 2017, a Qantas flight from Delhi to Sydney experienced severe turbulence over the Indian Ocean, causing minor injuries to a few passengers. The turbulence resulted from typical regional weather patterns.
In 2016, an Air India flight from Melbourne to Delhi encountered turbulence, resulting in injuries to several passengers. The plane hit a pocket of severe clear-air turbulence, which is hard to predict.
In 2014, a Malaysian Airlines flight from Kuala Lumpur to Bangalore (which shares part of the route) experienced severe turbulence, leading to injuries among passengers and crew. This was attributed to a weather system near the Bay of Bengal.
Current measures and recommendations
Modern aircraft are equipped with advanced weather radar and real-time meteorological data, aiding pilots in navigating and mitigating turbulence. Airlines on the Australia-India route use detailed weather forecasts to adjust flight paths and altitudes to avoid the most turbulent areas.
For passengers, it is crucial to always wear seatbelts when seated, even if the seatbelt sign is off. This simple precaution can prevent injuries during unexpected turbulence.
Overall, while the Australia-India route can encounter turbulent conditions, advancements in weather prediction and aircraft technology ensure that flights remain safe and disruptions are minimised. Ground-based meteorological centres use satellite data to monitor developing weather patterns, providing real-time updates to flight crews about expected weather conditions, including potential turbulence if storms are present.
Despite these efforts, turbulence remains a regular part of air travel. Nearly every flight encounters some form of turbulence, whether due to wake turbulence from another aircraft during take-off and landing, strong winds near the ground, or clear-air turbulence at higher altitudes. Clear-air turbulence, caused by warmer air rising into cooler air, is particularly challenging to predict and avoid.
A comprehensive study from Reading University highlighted the increasing frequency of clear-air turbulence over the past four decades, especially in mid-latitude regions at cruising altitudes. The most significant increases were observed over the United States and the North Atlantic, which are some of the busiest flight paths globally. The research indicated a 55% rise in severe or greater CAT over the Atlantic between 1979 and 2020.
While the research does not directly correlate to an increase in aircraft encountering turbulence, it underscores the growing presence of turbulent conditions in the atmosphere. This trend suggests that airlines and passengers may need to adapt to a future with more frequent and severe turbulence events.
Airlines continually work to reduce the impact of turbulence on both planes and passengers. Advanced technologies for detecting and predicting turbulence are still in development, but current methods involve a combination of radar, real-time meteorological data, and the expertise of flight crews. For travellers, the key takeaway is to heed the crew’s advice and fasten seatbelts when instructed, as a precaution against unexpected turbulence.
The most turbulent air routes have been identified in various studies, with routes such as Santiago (SCL) to Santa Cruz (VVI) and Almaty (ALA) to Bishkek (FRU) ranking high in terms of average turbulence. Other routes with notable turbulence include those in and around mountainous regions and areas with significant weather patterns.
As the aviation industry continues to navigate the challenges posed by climate change, both airlines and passengers must remain vigilant and adaptable. Increased turbulence is just one of many factors that will shape the future of air travel, requiring ongoing efforts to enhance safety and comfort in the skies.
Ultimately, while turbulence is an unavoidable aspect of flying, understanding its causes and the measures taken to mitigate its effects can help reassure passengers. So next time you’re on a flight and the seatbelt sign lights up, remember it’s all part of keeping everyone safe as we journey through increasingly unpredictable skies.
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Climate change is increasing turbulence frequency & severity. The Australia-India route encounters moderate turbulence due to weather systems, but modern technology ensures safety. Passengers should always wear seatbelts. 🛫💺🌩️📡👨✈️ #TheIndianSunhttps://t.co/6F9Ct3kPWq
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