Teal challenge and preference tactics stir the race in Berowra

This election, the field has widened. Tina Brown, a local publisher and long-time editor of the Hornsby and Ku-ring-gai Post, is running as a Climate 200-backed independent. She has stepped away from her editorial role to campaign full-time. Her platform focuses on climate policy, housing access for first home buyers, and transport infrastructure. Brown’s campaign has adopted the ‘teal’ independent model seen in neighbouring electorates: heavy on face-to-face engagement, backed by targeted social media, and bolstered by professional fundraising. Her team has maintained a steady presence at railway stations, weekend markets and parent networks. Early digital monitoring suggests Brown has built notable engagement among younger and middle-aged voters, particularly in Cherrybrook, Hornsby and Pennant Hills.

Labor’s candidate, Benson Koschinski, is running again after contesting the seat in 2022. His previous campaign yielded a 20.1% primary vote—a relatively stable result given Berowra’s Liberal lean. Labor’s campaign has remained active but low-key, and while the party does not expect to win, preferences from Labor voters could be critical in narrowing the margin between the leading two candidates. If Brown can maintain primary momentum, Koschinski’s second preferences may play a kingmaker role.

Other candidates include Brendan Clarke (Fusion Party), Gerald Mattinson (One Nation), and Stephen Bastian ( Trumpet of Patriots ). Clarke is representing the Fusion alliance, formed through the merger of several micro parties including the Science and Pirate parties. Their presence is minimal, with campaign efforts largely digital and aimed at niche policy reform. Mattinson’s One Nation candidacy is more visible on the outskirts of the electorate, particularly in Wisemans Ferry and Maroota, where anti-government messaging has found modest support. Bastian’s campaign for The Other Party remains largely symbolic, with no significant campaign infrastructure.

Key local issues are shaping the public mood, as reported by the Hornsby Advocate and echoed on community forums and local Facebook groups. Residents cite transport delays on the T1 line, increasing congestion through Pennant Hills and Thornleigh, and the steady loss of tree cover in areas undergoing medium-density rezoning. Climate resilience has emerged as another concern, with heatwaves and fire risks front of mind in bushland-adjacent suburbs. Brown’s messaging on these fronts has resonated, while Leeser has focused on the Coalition’s infrastructure plans and broader economic credentials.

Voting behaviour in Berowra has remained stable in turnout, with the 2022 election recording a participation rate of 93.4%. However, the informal vote rate rose to 5.6%, suggesting some level of confusion or dissatisfaction, possibly tied to the growing number of minor party candidates. While the seat was comfortably held by the Liberals, the margin narrowed, and the two-party swing against the incumbent aligned with a broader metropolitan trend across Sydney’s north.

Postal vote numbers and prepoll activity have steadily increased in the past two elections, and 2025 is expected to follow suit. This could delay final counting if the contest is close, especially in a seat where preference flows might determine the winner. Independent analysts have noted that if the Liberal primary vote drops below 45%, and Brown continues to outperform in suburban booths, the seat could become marginal.

While Leeser retains the advantages of incumbency, name recognition and a loyal Liberal base, the independent challenge has been more coordinated and better funded than in previous years. Brown has drawn attention to local issues with precision, aiming to convert community frustration into electoral action.

Berowra’s 2025 outcome could reveal more than a local contest. It may serve as a case study in how traditionally conservative suburban electorates are responding to climate-focused independents and a more fragmented political field. A clear result may not come on election night, but the dynamics are already signalling a shift from business-as-usual politics in Sydney’s outer north.